AI Agent Blast Radius Risk Calculator

Blast radius is the magnitude of damage that could occur if the action fires when it should not — a measure of risk exposure, not a prediction. Blast / incident is that exposure: the damage of a single wrong fire (discrete, worst-case). Runaway blast is that incident times the runaway ceiling — one action looping N times before it is stopped (the runaway / tool-loop failure mode). Blast / mo is the expected monthly loss at the given error rate — and because the catastrophic classes usually fire rarely, the monthly figure under-states them, which is exactly why the per-incident and runaway radii sit next to it. Severity is an additive weight — reversibility (1 / 3 / 10) plus visibility (0 / 1 / 4) — that multiplies the direct impact ($/action + users × $/user). Examples: irreversible + customer-facing = ×11; irreversible + public = ×14 (the catastrophic class — flagged with !). Weights are illustrative defaults, not measured industry data — replace with figures from your own incident history. Containment is the share of incidents Cycles' runtime action authority would prevent before they fire; effectiveness depends on policy. For the full model, see the Risk & Blast Radius Reference.